McKinsey & Company Global Energy Perspective 2025: Insights for Pipeline Operators

The McKinsey & Company Global Energy Perspective 2025 report paints a complex picture of the world’s energy future. It forecasts that total energy demand will keep growing, but the path toward decarbonisation will be uneven and influenced by geopolitics, technology adoption, and supply‑chain constraints. For pipeline operators and those responsible for remote workforce housing and logistics, understanding these macro trends is crucial to making smart investment and operational decisions. Below we summarise key findings from the report and explain what they mean for your projects.

Hydrocarbons remain critical through at least 2030

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Although the world is moving toward cleaner energy, demand for liquid fuels is expected to peak only around 2030, at 103–109 million barrels per day. The report notes that oil demand has already recovered to pre‑COVID‑19 levels and is projected to grow at roughly one million barrels per day per year in the “Continued Momentum” scenario. Even after the peak, demand in 2050 could range from 72 to 100 million barrels per day depending on the speed of the energy transition.

The report also highlights that the road transport sector will remain the largest contributor to oil demand through 2030. For pipeline operators, this implies continued investment in liquid‑fuel infrastructure—including pipelines, storage terminals and remote camps—over the next decade. To meet demand beyond 2030, substantial upstream projects are required. McKinsey predicts that new deep‑water and shale developments will jointly provide 33 percent of crude and condensate supply by 2040, while OPEC members and allies could supply 53 percent. This signals ongoing opportunities in pipeline construction and midstream logistics.

Natural gas, meanwhile, is projected to see strong growth. In McKinsey’s “Slow Evolution” scenario, global gas demand rises from just over 4,000 billion cubic metres today to about 5,020 billion cubic metres by 2050. The power sector drives most of this increase, as combined‑cycle gas turbines are used to balance intermittent renewables. Asia accounts for roughly 75 percent of gas‑demand growth through 2040, largely because coal‑to‑gas switching is a cheaper way to cut emissions in the region. Gas demand for buildings and industry is expected to decline in Europe as these sectors electrify, but gas will remain essential for dispatchable power in many regions. For our beachhead customers, this means continued expansion of gas pipelines and LNG infrastructure, with an emphasis on flexibility and resilience in supply chains.

Supply‑chain bottlenecks and infrastructure constraints

One of the report’s key warnings is that supply‑chain bottlenecks for clean‑energy equipment could slow the energy transition. Lead times for transformers, uninterruptible power supplies and generators are currently six months to two years, and the shortest lead times are still longer than they were before the pandemic. The situation is particularly acute in the United States, where reliance on imports and fragmented supply chains make lead times longer than in Europe. These bottlenecks not only hinder renewable‑power projects but also affect the availability of critical equipment such as transformers for pipeline compressor stations and remote camps. Project owners should expect longer procurement cycles and build extra time into their schedules.

The report also notes that affordability and energy security are taking priority over decarbonization. This suggests that governments may continue to support conventional energy projects—including pipelines—while clean‑tech supply chains scale up. However, competition for scarce equipment will remain fierce. To mitigate risk, pipeline operators should secure long‑term supplier agreements, work with logistics partners that can expedite deliveries and maintain contingency inventories of critical components.

Electrification and new demand centers

Electrification is expected to accelerate worldwide, driving a surge in electricity consumption. Industry and buildings are the main sources of electricity‑demand growth in most regions, while data centers are projected to be the largest driver in North America. Electricity demand in many regions is expected to grow 20 to 40 percent by 2050, and data‑center power usage could grow at 17 percent per year.

For pipeline operators, electrification has two implications. First, electrified industrial processes and electric vehicles will create new demand for natural‑gas‑fired power plants to provide backup capacity, reinforcing the importance of gas pipelines. Second, the growth of data centers—often located in remote areas for cooling efficiency—will require robust infrastructure for power supply, materials handling and workforce housing. Operators should consider integrating data‑center support into their service offerings, including providing accommodations for construction crews and ongoing maintenance teams.

Implications for pipeline operators and man‑camp logistics

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The energy transition will be long and uneven, with hydrocarbons remaining essential for decades. Pipeline companies therefore face a dual challenge: expanding infrastructure to meet continued demand for oil and gas while adapting to supply‑chain disruptions and electrification trends. Here are actionable takeaways for our beachhead customers:

• Plan for peak demand but expect volatility. Oil demand may peak around 2030 but remains high thereafter; natural gas demand continues growing through 2050. Build pipelines and storage with flexibility to adjust flows and to pivot between liquids and gas as market conditions change.

• Strengthen procurement and logistics. Long lead times for energy‑equipment components make integrated sourcing and logistics critical. Secure trusted suppliers, diversify transport routes and maintain contingency stock of critical parts—especially transformers and compressors for remote operations.

• Invest in comfortable, scalable workforce housing. As oil and gas projects proliferate in remote regions, competition for skilled labour intensifies. High‑quality camps with privacy, amenities and proximity to worksites improve morale and retention—a key advantage when labour markets are tight.

• Prepare for electrification. Data‑center and industrial electrification will drive new demand for gas‑powered generation and remote infrastructure. Explore opportunities to support power‑intensive facilities with housing, materials sourcing and just‑in‑time logistics.

Conclusion

McKinsey’s Global Energy Perspective 2025 underscores that while the world is marching toward cleaner energy, hydrocarbons will remain the backbone of the energy system for decades. Demand for liquid fuels and natural gas stays robust, upstream investments will be necessary, and supply‑chain bottlenecks are slowing the rollout of new technologies. At the same time, electrification and data‑center growth are reshaping demand patterns. For pipeline operators and those managing remote workforce accommodations, success hinges on resilient logistics, flexible infrastructure and a people‑centric approach to camps.

At Karavan Trade Partners, we specialize in sourcing hard‑to‑find equipment, managing multimodal logistics, and creating comfortable, compliant camps that keep crews safe and productive. We track energy‑market trends so you don’t have to, and we’re ready to help you navigate the uncertainties ahead. Contact us today to discuss how we can support your next pipeline project.